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 | Bitcoin: my 2025 predictions | |
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[IOD]Snips
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|  | | P: | 10/30/2024 03:14 EST |
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Bitcoin: My 2025 predictions
Current October prices were battling between Harris (anti-crypto) vs Trump (pro-crypto) winning the election.
Also investors awaiting the final MT Gox 44,900 BTC worth over $3 Billion with the deadline of Oct 31st 2024 distribution date approaching. Well a few weeks ago, that trustee pushed that date back one year to Oct 31st 2025, lol. More than half of the coins were distributed, however you have to realize the price of btc did reach just below $54,000 several times during distribution.
Trump will win the election, Elon Musk will be put in charge to oversee the new “government efficiency commission” focused on cutting spending. An article a few days ago on Bloomberg mentioned $2 trillion to be cut by Musk, where the author suggested medicare, medicaid, social security and/or vet benefits are likely to be affected as $2 trillion is an enormous figure.
Article: Elon Musk Sees Trump’s Economic Plans Causing ‘Temporary Hardship’
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/29/us/politics/elon-musk-trum p-economy-hardship.html
quoting a segment from the article below:
 | As part of his endless stream of replies to fans on his social media platform that go late into the night, Mr. Musk replied to a pseudonymous account early on Tuesday morning that posited that there would be an “initial severe overreaction in the economy” and that the “market will tumble” if Mr. Trump is elected and follows through on his plan. Afterward, the account said, “There will be a rapid recovery to a healthier, sustainable economy.”
Mr. Musk replied at 1:46 a.m. with three words: “Sounds about right.” | |
This suggests certain or an overall stock market correction, likely bad for short term investments including bitcoin. It will probably be best for America long term, but big policy changes & massive spending starting/stopping are not priced into the current stock market.
I predict $90,000 BTC this Christmas/New Year, with a failure to break $100k. I think Trump will say & do things behind the scenes, and somehow the war with Russia will end. Oil will make a comeback & overall the world's richest people (including Trump's friends) will massively benefit financially from a big shock to the stock market crash in 2025. The important thing (for Trump) is the perception of the crash/correction is "this is healing America" & "temporary" is what will keep our citizens happy.
Bitcoin reaching $90k is not a valuation of Bitcoin being worth more, but rather a reflection on the US Dollar being worth less then ever due to inflation. Gold is significantly worth more dollar wise then anytime in American history too currently.
People in Oct 2024 estimating incorrectly that whatever Trump does will be good for Bitcoin is bullshit. Bitcoin had some harsh moments in 2016-2020, and Trump did call crypto worthless while he was president. He didn't warm up to it until after he was out of office, and especially when he found a way to sell his literal image in crypto NFTs for personal financial gain. Bitcoin & the stock market are very much interlinked, and the upcoming changes in AI in 2025-2026 are going to change the way & use cases of crypto. When major banks located in the United States & globally begin to allow deposits in BTC, ETH and a handful of others, regular citizens will be more likely to buy & hold it. But it will be in a similar category as Gold, not something you'll use to spend on things but rather protection against future inflation.
Rather then guessing if BTC will be $20k or $180k in the fall of 2025, an easier guess will be to predict the overall health of the stock market at that time. And as events unfold and plans laid out while the groundwork begins, this will become more clear as the bitcoin price attempts to price that in. | |
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[IOD]Snips
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| | | P: | 10/30/2024 03:32 EST |
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The company TESLA purchasing Bitcoin was a shock as such a public company had never done so, this happened well over a year ago. The idea that other significantly larger companies could do the same was then a possibility. If global giant companies such as Apple or Google poured even 1% of their assets into such a limited market cap as Bitcoin, the shock to the low $$ volume would make the BTC price climb significantly.
Well overall it had a negative reaction, instead the stock price of Tesla fell as a reaction. This setup the narrative that it would be foolish for other companies to attempt to do the same thing in the near future. If you spent hundreds of millions or even a billion dollars, only to lose tens of Billions of dollars in the value of your stocks it hurts too much short term (less than 10 years) in the grand scheme of things. Tesla did end up selling most of their Bitcoin I believe 1-3 years ago, I forget exactly when all this occured.
I say this because Tesla stock may skyrocket in 2025 including the celebrity status & overall influence of the man Elon Musk, this is due to the enormous responsibilities to America that Mr. Trump maybe placing on to Musk soon.
It would not surprise me that after the Trump administration begins to make extremely favorable policy changes to crypto, that another attempt at a major corporation steps forward to put Bitcoin into their portfolio. This could even be the company Tesla trying it again, but with getting positive results due to Musks 2025-2026 image.
Ultimately from a single person perspective, Trump has attempted to obtain personal wealth from selling NFT crypto pictures of himself before he announced he was running for president again. And Elon Musk was the face of the altcoin Dogecoin, hell he even went onto Saturday Night Live to have a skit about Dogecoin which made it's value skyrocket temporarily. Both men will 100% be open to working together to benefit financially from pro-crypto changes behind the scenes, they've done it on camera already, duh!
If the public favors a company buying bitcoin & society makes crypto a popular part of our culture, the "limited supply" will force the price to reach heights none of us have ever predicted in years to come. Every 4 years for the next 100+ years the supply is cut in half from miners. | |
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What crypto do you hold and roughly how much? I am hesitant to put more money into it but damn if it appraises as much as you all think (including Musk) I ought to be throwing some in here and there. | |
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[IOD]Snips
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| | | P: | 11/10/2024 18:13 EST |
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I should break down the deflationary nature of both Bitcoin and Ethereum as they are very different. It's important to understand them both before you consider putting any money into either.
BTC/BCH/BSV:
Every 10minutes miners are competing for a "block" which contains bitcoins, and this is how they are created. And every 4 years the number of coins created every 10minutes gets cut in half.
Initially in 2009-2012 there were 7200 bitcoins being created a day through mining, 4 years later the halvening always occurs. Since the last halvening was in Summer of 2024, currently there are 450 bitcoins created per day.
In 2036 there will be 56.25 bitcoins being created a day through mining.
So while 2,628,000 bitcoins being created per year in 2012 was a lot.
Only 164,250 bitcoins are being created per year in late 2024.
Just 20,531 bitcoins will be created per year in 2036.
When there are less coins being made, there are less fresh supply of people potentially driving the price down. Regardless of technological use cases, the number of Bitcoins are limited & the fresh supply will continue to get 50% smaller every 4 years so TIME suggests it's price will far exceed gold & beyond as a store of value.
ETHEREUM
While ETH used to be mined & the gas fee's were paid to the videocard miners, more recently it was changed to minting with a technology called Staking. This is less secure then the enormous amount of electricity required to mine bitcoins, as the more a single person or company is willing to hold large numbers of ETH then the more centralized ETH becomes.
The scarcity of ETH is part of its more recent programming where the higher the fee's resulting from a high amount of users using the Ethereum network, the more a big percentage of those fee's get BURNED or DESTROYED. So the idea is that someday in the future, if lots of people are using the ETH network in some huge way that more coins will be destroyed then are created over time making the total supply actually shrink rather than grow. The main problems with ETH that can't be ignored in my opinion however, and that is centralization problems with big whales holding coins make the network insecure. There's nothing stopping the dev team from printing more ETH at a different rate in the future. | |
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[IOD]Snips
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| | | P: | 11/10/2024 18:27 EST |
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I think if you stepped into a time machine 10-20 years into the future, there'd be a lottery system in your supermarket, but the reward won't be US dollars or a number of bitcoins. It will be Satoshis or sats for short as the reward. This is a unit of measurement for a partial bitcoin & 1 sat is the smallest amount you can divide a single bitcoin.
100,000,000 satoshis = 1 bitcoin
So if $1,000,000 = 1BTC in the future, then the way people will discuss & trade bitcoins would be to move satoshis around. If this was the trade value of a single coin, then 10 sats = 10cents or 1000 sats = $10.00
Lottery payouts could be hundreds of thousands of sats, smart cars can autopay to a lightning network for parking, smart contracts can exchange goods/services using stablecoins (private money).
When people buy gold bars/coins, your house might burn down or a hurricane causes a flood however that gold is always recoverable. When people store a private wallet on their electronic device or on a paper wallet which can easily get destroyed in a flood or fire, all those bitcoin are LOST forever. Something people don't realize, but everytime that happens there are a few less bitcoins for others which increases how rare they are overall. Millions of bitcoin are lost forever over time. The final 21 millionth bitcoin will be mined around the year 2140 afterwards no more can ever be created. | |
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[IOD]Snips
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| | | P: | 11/10/2024 18:43 EST |
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| EmotionallyDisturbedParakeet wrote:
What crypto do you hold and roughly how much? I am hesitant to put more money into it but damn if it appraises as much as you all think (including Musk) I ought to be throwing some in here and there. | |
I've advised my dad on a few altcoins, not a lot of money's worth. I do not have any wealth to invest myself currently.
I have no doubt Bitcoin specifically will grow significantly more over the years. However, I also have no doubt it will crash *HARD* if there is a major war or new airborne pandemic. Bitcoin's never existed during a major recession either as it's only been around since 2010.
My instincts are to buy when everyone is panicking over something stupid & temporary, and to sell a small amount when the greed approaches crazy levels.
The fact DOGE coin is growing faster than any other altcoin since Trump's our new president again is nuts. Like my mind can't process how retarded it is, as Doge coin has no long-term plan. Elon Musk is the face of the Doge coin because he holds so many of them still, that he had even went on SNL for that doge coin skit which went viral a few years back. In Elon's recent Joe Rogan interview, did anybody else hear Elon mention his new Trump appointed: "Department Of Government Efficiency"? That literally spells out the word D.O.G.E..... hahaha.
The current hype is temporary & makes me nervous that it won't last. If/when Trump/Elon begin to make lasting long term use cases (*ESPECIALLY* integrating crypto into banks across the country) for bitcoin & eth, then I'd recommend people invest more. I think there'll be a window where the price is much lower than it is today where timelines for crypto friendly laws are announced & that smart investors will be able to identify that investing is a smart decision. | |
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[IOD]Snips
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| | | P: | 11/11/2024 07:12 EST |
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The interesting ratio I'm watching has been the BTC/ETH, or how many ETH you can get for a BTC comparison. This can help you see the fight between BTC & ETH, where when ETH gets stronger the entire eco system of altcoins tends to increase.
Lately it's been close to 0.04.
This was 0.8 at many points from May 2021-Aug 2022.
The all time high of 0.15 was in the summer of 2017.
The all time low of 0.017 was in late 2019/early 2020.
If you divide the 19.78 million BTC that exist with the 120.42 million ETH that exist, you get a ratio of 0.164 which is important!
So basically if the ratio ever gets to 0.164 or higher, then the market cap of ETH would become higher then BTC & the entire crypto ecosystem would collapse long-term. For if an altcoin without a total coincap can overtake Bitcoin, then something would be able to overtake ETH in the long term future. This is also important to realize from an investment perspective too for the risk/reward potential! If BTC is $200k and ETH is $24k and you were about to invest in one or the other, you would realize that with a 0.12 ratio, that ETH has very little room to grow & a lot of room to fail with a max of 0.164 possible & a historic minimum below 0.02 floor. | |
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[IOD]Snips
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| | | P: | 11/11/2024 07:14 EST |
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January is typically the BEST time for altcoins, or an "altcoin season" bullmarket. Of course this requires BTC prices to be healthy, and more importantly the stock market to be going up.
Now with that said, if BTC gets to $100k by January 2025 there will be one of two different scenarios:
Altcoin bearmarket- Eth/btc ratio remains at 0.038 making eth $3,800 or possibly slides all the way down to the 2019/2020 lows of 0.017 making eth $1,700. Eth doing terrible, the other altcoins are doing even worse as BTC continues to grow even higher. Perhaps BTC grows significantly higher then $100k later into 2025 if this occurs but is unlikely.
Altcoin bullmarket- Eth/btc ratio climbs to 0.08 making eth $8,000 or possibly slides all the way to 0.12 which it's reached several times in 2017 & early 2018 before making it $12,000. Other altcoins grow even higher then ETH as retail & home users alike jump onboard the gambling train ready to get rich too. The smaller altcoins prevent ETH from growing higher, and the $1 trillion invested into altcoins prevents bitcoin from growing any larger. For the next 4 years, an enormous number of crypto newbies invest and lose money into altcoins instead of bitcoin which prevents the next all time high of BTC until 2029, one year after the next halving. | |
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[IOD]Snips
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| | | P: | 11/13/2024 12:16 EST | | E: | 11/13/2024 12:18 EST |
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Article that came out this morning as BTC is breaking above $93,000. I'm more interested in the UFO hearing occurring this morning, will be curious if another small or much larger secret gets released but I don't want to make another thread, lol.
If BTC + ETH were both up 20-30% since Trump beat Harris, I'd have more faith in this rally. But the fact worthless DOGE coin + BTC mainly are the only big winners, before Trump has even announced any big changes makes this a silly rally. Articles suggesting the possibility the US Government could become a bitcoin holder in its strategic reserves SHOULD suggest over a $1 million price instead of $500k IMO. It's kind of wild that a major news network would be entertaining such ideas this early. $400k bitcoin would make it's market cap equal to the precious metal GOLD. BTC recently bypassed the marketcap of the precious metal SILVER.
| Bloomberg: Novogratz Says Odds of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Under Trump Are Low
*Bitcoin will rise to $500,000 if reserve happens, he says
*It would force other countries to buy Bitcoin, Novogratz says
Michael Novogratz, the billionaire head of crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital, said there is a low likelihood that the US will set up a Bitcoin strategic reserve as proposed by President-elect Donald Trump.
“I still think it’s a low probability,” Novogratz said during an interview Wednesday on Bloomberg Television. “While the Republicans control the Senate, they don’t have close to 60 seats. I think that it would be very smart for the United States to take the Bitcoin they have and maybe add some to it and say we want to show the world that we are going to be a technology first country, a crypto, digital asset first country... I don’t necessarily think that the dollar needs anything to back it up.” | |
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/novogratz... | |
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[IOD]Snips
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| | | P: | 11/13/2024 12:41 EST |
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Nov 2021:
ETH was $4800
BTC was $65,000
March 2024:
ETH was $4080
BTC was $69,000
Today 11/13/2024:
ETH is $3275
BTC is $93,000
It "feels" like the current rally is from rich individuals or possibly companies buying only BTC and not some technical innovative year in 2024 pushing real world use cases.
If we saw ETH + many altcoins using that network skyrocketing upward as well, I'd have more faith in this rally. | |
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[IOD]Snips
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| | | P: | 11/13/2024 12:42 EST |
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When looking at the top10 Crypto coins it's rather pathetic.
#1 btc $1.8 trillion
#2 eth $400 billion
#3 tether $125 billion, many of which are backed by NOTHING. Small group of individuals operating out of Ecuador. When they print tends of billions of dollars (tethers), magically the price of BTC seems to go up over the years.
#6 Dogecoin $60 billion, where it skyrocketed up a few years back when Elon Musk appeared on SNL mentioning the coin. Had no roadmap & even Elon said it was a joke coin, but the fact he was talking about it & said he had a ton of them publically makes people blindly want it. People want to copy what a billionaire does.
#7 Ripple $41 billion. The owners continued to sell off millions of all their own coins, making the SEC very angry at the developers actions. The fact this was a type of ponzi scheme & yet is still the 7th biggest coin is insane.
#8 USDC $36 billion, another stablecoin where this one actually has audits proving it's backed by something unlike Tether. If USDC + TETHER never existed, I have a feeling btc would be $20k-$30k today. Wouldn't surprise me if Tether is holding 1million btc since printing stablecoins in 2017.
It's crazy there's coins like LINK is being integrated into the global SWIFT network + many other areas where it should be #2 or #3 on the list but it's way down at #15. Or BitcoinCash way down at #16 which is faster then BTC & will eventually act as a backup of BTC functionality I believe in the future, which is insane it's only at $8.7 billion. BCH also has halvening events every 4 years.
Ultimately there will be laws & policies that will be given a YES or a NO on, but weeks & months before the public learns of this people working in DC will be profiting instead. Trump & his personal friends will be buying & selling bitcoin at the correct time, and not the general public at home. | |
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