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 | Electric cars | |
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[IOD]Snips
Super Regular
Speed Sniping
Master
|  | | P: | 11/08/2024 14:00 EST |
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I disagree, Solar panels are just too good as long as scientists don't cloudseed covering the earth in darkness with some attempt at reversing global warming. Creating some Snowpiercer ice age, lol.
If over the course of 30 years of producing electricity you were using a solar panel, and even then its only lost what, 10-20% of its output? So 30-50 years after you've been using them that 100watt panel is still giving you 80watts.
The emissions to produce solar is the best part, it's only like 6months. So if you used a bunch of solar panels for exactly 2 years until a tree fell crushing the panels beyond repair, you provided 1.5 years of carbon free living as half a year went into the production of the panels themselves worth of power. Another way to imagine it, is the first 6months the solar is converting light to electricity is paying off the carbon cost to initially create them. Some types of solar this is higher at 1year or possibly upto 1.5years.
Brand new technologies like 3d layering solar, integrating transparent solar panels into glass on skyscraper buildings & creating newer types of solar that reduce initial carbon waste lower then 6months are being developed. Cost, output, longevity, size will all be better by 2030 for solar too.
The primary thing IMHO is decentralized if MOST people had solar on their rooftops across America. Then as long as they could backfeed that generated electricity onto the power grid by default, most energy problems now go away. Cloudy states get sent excess electricity from sunny states. There is no threat of a single fusion reactor, hyrdo dam, or coal mine that if it fails an enormous number of homes go dark for hours to days in this way while the sun is shining.
I predict enormous AI server farms + $1million Bitcoin will have enormous Mining profits, which will drive up the cost for electricity to fucking crazy numbers by 2030. If we don't have solar or significantly more nuclear powerplants up by then, the cost of living problem will be electricity instead of groceries. China's building 2 coal powered plants per week still, and they're set to win the AI race by then most likely with their electricity being cheap in the future. | |
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I do not believe solar panels currently in production today will last anywhere near that long, nor back feed anywhere near enough power to supply AI farms as well as electric cars.
I predict we will use solar panels as at most a stop gap measure until fusion reactors come online fully.
The capital expenditure for solar won’t make any sense when the price of electricity from the grid plummets due to only needing water and maintenance to run power plants.
For solar power, there’s far more efficient, higher energy methods than photo voltaics; parabolic mirrors powering a stirling engine intrigues me (professor in school studied these; studied these in our thermodynamics class etc).
However we won’t know who is right for decades and you sure as fuck won’t live that long due to your apparent meth addiction.
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My caveat is I’d love to see what Elon musk could do with solar. Watched an interview with him talking about it, the energy flux from the sun for a patch of 100sq miles could replace all the power plants in the U.S., or something like that, and I believe that concept to be fundamentally true. | |
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Boo Boo
Super Regular
Master HWGuy
| | | P: | 11/08/2024 18:54 EST |
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I'm just waiting for Elon to invent an ironman suit. | |
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[IOD]Snips
Super Regular
Speed Sniping
Master
| | | P: | 11/08/2024 19:16 EST |
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 | EmotionallyDisturbedParakeet wrote:
I do not believe solar panels currently in production today will last anywhere near that long, nor back feed anywhere near enough power to supply AI farms as well as electric cars.
I predict we will use solar panels as at most a stop gap measure until fusion reactors come online fully.
The capital expenditure for solar won’t make any sense when the price of electricity from the grid plummets due to only needing water and maintenance to run power plants.
For solar power, there’s far more efficient, higher energy methods than photo voltaics; parabolic mirrors powering a stirling engine intrigues me (professor in school studied these; studied these in our thermodynamics class etc).
However we won’t know who is right for decades and you sure as fuck won’t live that long due to your apparent meth addiction.
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It's all about supply & demand. The amount of $$$ you earn for mining bitcoin right now requires extremely cheap power to break even or to make a profit from what I've read for instance. This would change drastically if BTC was $200k or higher however. If that were the case then both businesses & individuals would be flying to various countries converting power into bitcoins. Suddenly the cost of electricity rises everywhere along with that higher price of bitcoin, and the network security of bitcoin also rises as a result.
The same thing WILL be said about AI server farms. This isn't a 10-30 year out thing, this is a 2025 thing where companies will be making huge profits by renting out or flat out creating their own computer server farm for machine learning where enormous amounts of electricity is required. To realize how many of these server farms are soon going to be required demands some imagination which China seems to have a grasp of but certainly not the us politicians who play catchup constantly. | |
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[IOD]Snips
Super Regular
Speed Sniping
Master
| | | P: | 11/08/2024 19:20 EST |
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The point with rooftop solar on homes, is that is wasted space currently. If every house could capture 20-50% more power than the average home uses then there would always be an excess amount of power. In the very least, it would allow for exceptionally cheap power during the daytime hours. The idea is you wouldn't need those massive solar farms consuming hundreds of acres anymore. There is a shit ton of homes that are empty during normal business hours, or people that live simple lives only consuming 1000watts or less on average. Having all those homes each dumping 5000-10,000w back onto the grind constantly during the day for 30years actually would be a gamechanger both for American energy production & for a green solution for global warming. Create American solar panel factories & setup that infrastructure cheaply.
Banning or limiting AI growth could help slow the AI farm boom about to occur, however China is racing to build the first self aware AI. The first company or country to create the extinction level AI capable of killing humanity later will become the richest company on earth, and that's all the selfish people care about today. Remember, AI wasn't even mentioned in the presidential debates.
I eat Keto & never do drugs. I know I'm odd because I read about countless subjects everyday. Always learning, learning, learning. | |
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I want to know the cost per gflop of a quantum computer vs transistor computer for ai and mining farms.
I also want to know the electric load per capita required for everyone to have both household and vehicle energy met by electrical.
As for you doing keto and no meth, I’d have to see pictures of your teeth. 🦷
I was mining etherum but gave that up. Are you running a mining rig? If so what’s your setup like. | |
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[IOD]Snips
Super Regular
Speed Sniping
Master
| | | P: | 11/09/2024 08:36 EST |
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I mined btc for a month back in 2012, but then quickly switched to litecoin (LTC) where I then swapped that for BTC. While I had about 2.5 bitcoins back then, I sold them all and was proud of making around $300 out of thin air that summer. Was amazing to have 3 video cards with their fans at 100% earning money back then.
Today in 2024 you're competing with solar farms, hydro power near China & even thermal energy being converted into mining. So even living in one of the cheapest states for electricity in the USA at 10 cents per kilowatt hour, I don't think it's cost effective. My point is if the cost of Bitcoin grows massively from the current price, the cost of electricity will be forced to grow higher.
Take the metal Silver for instance. I've read there are enormous amounts that can be mined, however in order to do so would cost something like $140 per ounce. So as long as the price of silver is only $30, that supply will never be a factor & remains in the ground. | |
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[IOD]Snips
Super Regular
Speed Sniping
Master
| | | P: | 11/09/2024 08:37 EST | | E: | 11/09/2024 08:42 EST |
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| EmotionallyDisturbedParakeet wrote:
I want to know the cost per gflop of a quantum computer vs transistor computer for ai and mining farms.
I also want to know the electric load per capita required for everyone to have both household and vehicle energy met by electrical.
As for you doing keto and no meth, I’d have to see pictures of your teeth. 🦷
I was mining etherum but gave that up. Are you running a mining rig? If so what’s your setup like. | |
I expect certain aspects of AI will only run on a classical computer OR a quantum computer. The two systems are VERY different and not 1 to 1 interchangeable. We're also a long ways off from huge scale quantum computers. The fear is one country constructing one single quantum computer capable of breaking all the encryptions on earth we still use today. Secrets & security will melt away as the biggest nations of earth have been collecting encrypted data for decades without a way to unlock the encrypted data yet.
The electric load required for everyone to have both household & vehicle energy met by our electrical grid is kind of scary. When you breakdown the energy consumption of your household appliances, many are smaller then you might realize. Typical household clothing dryers often use a 240v power in America and around 2000 to 6000 watts, with an average of 3000 watts. Like some people freak-out over a 400w window air conditioner, but think nothing of their microwave using 2000watts. A 1000w microwave cooking on high likely uses around 1500w, as the 1000w is the cooking power but not total electrical draw.
Really for driving there'll be gains with efficiency I'd imagine, but for the most part its 1500w for 1hour for 4miles of traveling in for a typical sized car. An RV or Truck is going to take way more I'd imagine. So drying your clothes for 1hour (3000w or 6000w load probably) would be the same thing as driving an electric car for 8miles or 16miles.
So it really depends on how far you drive per day on average in the past, present and future. And more importantly how far people in your area, state and the entire nation drives per day to get a better sense of what that demand might look like. | |
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[IOD]Snips
Super Regular
Speed Sniping
Master
| | | P: | 11/09/2024 08:51 EST |
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Not sure if people were quoting the new Ford lightning truck or the tesla cybertruck, but I remember reading that the enormous battery built into those vehicles were so enormous that they could power your entire house for a week.
That alone suggests that even with people that microwave exclusively for dinner, wash/dry their clothes often, have large screen tv's in every room and leave their lights on all the time might be using a lot of electricity. But that still wouldn't compare with driving 30+ miles a day in an electric car.
Again if you have 12,000w of solar on your rooftop, another way to look at that is you're generating enough power for an electric car to be driving 32MPH constantly. If it's cloudy & the output drops 75% then now its only 8MPH. If the car is parked in the driveway that's free energy pouring into your ev car battery. My point was, many homes are empty during the day so extra energy pouring back onto the grid would solve everyone's problems.
The two HUGE things people need to look past:
1. Solar panels on roof are $40,000. They would be 10x cheaper if they were designed better & solar roof installers didn't charge what they do. I still have no idea where 80% of their bill goes, it's certainly not towards the solar panels themselves. Why people think solar would cost $40k in 2030 is beyond me.
2. Electricity in 2024 is cheap. This won't be so in the future. We'll likely ignore the problem, until China creates a future resulting in enormous electrical costs. And out of desperation Americans will be forced to buy Chinese lower quality solutions. It's hard for Americans to imagine what 2026 could possibly look like for some reason. | |
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